Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.210614 0.253144 0.304146 0.370449 0.455296 0.561511 7.065713e-01
2025-06-08 0.156291 0.205298 0.271027 0.367751 0.510183 0.718457 1.058422e+00
2025-06-15 0.122656 0.173563 0.248703 0.372213 0.579587 0.932981 1.628717e+00
2025-06-22 0.098430 0.148606 0.229238 0.376000 0.655582 1.211990 2.554469e+00
2025-06-29 0.077210 0.122902 0.201699 0.358248 0.692101 1.460819 3.737881e+00
2025-07-06 0.054930 0.090314 0.154065 0.287967 0.595452 1.377589 4.066363e+00
2025-07-13 0.046128 0.079214 0.142481 0.286069 0.652703 1.734926 6.453256e+00
2025-07-20 0.040403 0.072451 0.137519 0.297536 0.755459 2.355205 1.171772e+01
2025-07-27 0.036143 0.067562 0.135190 0.315416 0.896141 3.339334 2.388869e+01
2025-08-03 0.032184 0.062408 0.130953 0.327612 1.037232 4.642518 5.073904e+01
2025-08-10 0.028008 0.055901 0.121845 0.322761 1.120350 5.917126 1.001830e+02
2025-08-17 0.024228 0.049518 0.111414 0.309851 1.166025 7.179848 1.934761e+02
2025-08-24 0.021639 0.045600 0.106936 0.317319 1.334743 10.295636 6.297915e+02
2025-08-31 0.019426 0.042130 0.102781 0.324921 1.530243 15.112442 3.012398e+03
2025-09-07 0.017656 0.039391 0.099980 0.337263 1.792009 23.585409 3.760197e+04
2025-09-14 0.016073 0.036806 0.096939 0.347922 2.084419 37.544820 1.084734e+07
2025-09-21 0.014261 0.033260 0.089930 0.337579 2.212833 51.507448 NaN
2025-09-28 0.011696 0.027259 0.073624 0.275862 1.801525 41.472090 NaN
2025-10-05 0.010688 0.025389 0.070501 0.277174 1.999167 62.547732 NaN
2025-10-12 0.010013 0.024327 0.069813 0.290929 2.377409 114.203790 NaN
2025-10-19 0.009485 0.023587 0.070066 0.310758 2.919311 242.911384 NaN
2025-10-26 0.008919 0.022630 0.069284 0.324853 3.474641 526.009131 NaN
2025-11-02 0.008212 0.021123 0.066021 0.321779 3.779879 943.891783 NaN